Crypto is a cesspool of criminals and scams. If even someone like Mark Cuban can’t keep his crypto secure, what are the chances that the average person can? The very idea that the masses will somehow adopt any of the current cryptos and use them as a medium of exchange is laughable.
“I’m pretty sure I downloaded a version of MetaMask with some shit in it,”
What if there are a startling number of people who work in real estate who don’t realize that their industry has been running a giant levered long bond fund for the past 40 years?
Not saying that it’s necessarily true, but I don’t think most real estate investors are taking the rising interest rates thing seriously enough. Most real estate investors I know are assuming that the Fed pivot is inevitable and we’ll be back in a declining interest rate environment within 6-12 months. That scenario is entirely possible, but it’s not inevitable.
When you look at a chart of the 30 year mortgage and how long it’s been in a downtrend, I’m not sure why everyone thinks we’re likely to have only a few years in an uptrend after a 40 year downtrend.
I think this is THE most important chart in investing right now. Looking at this chart, it’s very easy to see what you should have been doing as an investor for the past 40 years. Buying assets with as much leverage as possible was a no-brainer for over 40 years. But just as the saying goes “don’t confuse a bull market with brains,” I would also say don’t confuse a 40 year downtrend in interest rates with brains.
Sustained higher for longer interest rates would have a dramatic effect on asset prices. And almost certainly not in a positive way. Buying assets with leverage in a rising interest rate environment could yield some rather interesting results.
Richard Maybury, the author of the Uncle Eric Books, along with Doug Casey. Maybury makes some interesting points about his common law theory, which he boils down to essentially two things:
He points out a few interesting tidbits on the revolution in Cuba.
He talks about his belief that the US economy is in a situation where there are multiple layers of mal-investment that need to be liquidated.
He also raises some interesting points about how much of a mess the US educational system is, and how home schooling and one-room schools are a much better solution.
Fascinating podcast about Saudi Arabia and energy. As an energy investor, I’m always looking for a better understanding of the future of energy. Looking into the past can be very informative. Energy is life…and it’s also raw political power…
How worried should we be about Saudi Arabia?
Interesting perspective on revolutions by Gary North…
“Revolutions mean the centralization of power…”
“There is only one difference between a bad economist and a good one: the bad economist confines himself to the visible effect; the good economist takes into account both the effect that can be seen and those effects that must be foreseen.
“Yet this difference is tremendous; for it almost always happens that when the immediate consequence is favorable, the later consequences are disastrous, and vice versa. Whence it follows that the bad economist pursues a small present good that will be followed by a great evil to come, while the good economist pursues a great good to come, at the risk of a small present evil.”
– From an essay by Frédéric Bastiat in 1850, “That Which Is Seen and That Which Is Unseen”
I’m always fascinated by how people view the world around them. What makes them tick? How can people view the same facts about a situation and yet come to such wildly differing conclusions? Especially in the fields of economics, politics, and philosophy, how is it possible that we all come to these incredibly different conclusions about what the proper course of action should be?
How can we best help one another move towards the truth in a given situation? How do we challenge each other and find new points of view without being uncivil? How do we know if our viewpoint is wrong and the person we view as being ignorant is actually right?
From Robert Wentzel:
On a personal level when we discuss economics, politics and philosophy, we must seek to tie our opponents up in knots. Don’t battle them with long oratory. If they are thinkers, give them a book. But if they are boobs, counter them with questions. If they are in favor of the minimum wage, ask them why it shouldn’t be at $500 per hour then? Ask them why they think the laws of supply and demand don’t work for wages? If they are against gold as money because “You can’t eat gold,” ask them if eating money is something that should be essential to a money.
The Socratic method is very powerful against the unthinking masses. They haven’t thought out their positions, so the right questions can cause them to get so backed into a corner that they may even realize the absurdity of their position. Naturally, the more you practice the Socratic method, the better you get at. It is truly fencing against an unarmed man.
On an even more personal level, the more you know about how the economy works and what the future may hold, the better off you are.
To know that accelerating price inflation may be coming, that the Federal Reserve causes the business cycle by its money manipulations, that the ever-growing police state may result in serious infringements on our liberties is all very valuable knowledge. It means we can prepare for what is coming. Ignorance of these possibilities is not bliss, it is extremely dangerous.
Jews in Germany and Austria died because they were ignorant of the political situation developing around them. Sigmund Freud and Ludwig von Mises, because they were not ignorant of the environment, were able to flee and survive.
The more you know and correctly understand the developing situation the better off you are. Knowledge is power. Ignorance is mental blindness.
“When you see that in order to produce, you need to obtain permission from men who produce nothing – When you see that money is flowing to those who deal, not in goods, but in favors – When you see that men get richer by graft and by pull than by work, and your laws don’t protect you against them, but protect them against you – When you see corruption being rewarded and honesty becoming a self-sacrifice – You may know that your society is doomed.”
–Ayn Rand, Atlas Shrugged, 1957
Once again, as if we needed more evidence, we’re on our own in providing for our financial future. The “experts” are not looking out for you. Not only are they not looking out for you, they’re probably actively engaged in taking advantage of your lack of financial knowledge. It’s a learning problem…
It's A Learning Problem 