Mark Spitznagel is a really interesting character. I’ve read several of his books, this one most recently, and he has some really interesting ideas on investing and risk. He’s worked with Nassim Taleb and they seem to share a lot of the same perspectives. Nassim has written about “black swans” and risk management extensively. I found his “Antifragile” book to be interesting as well.
Mark is also clearly a student of Austrian Economics. I’m always trying to think of ways to apply the theory behind Austrian Economics to the real-world challenges of investing. While they’re two different things, I believe there are some key insights that can be applied to improve investing results. I plan to write a post sometime about how I incorporate his ideas on investing into my own portfolio.
But, thats another post for another day. In the meantime, here’s an interview I found from a few months ago…
And a few blurbs:
We are in the greatest credit bubble of human history. That’s the real problem. It’s entirely because of artificially low interest rates, artificial liquidity in the economy that has really happened in a big way since the great financial crisis. And credit bubbles end. They pop. There’s no way to stop them from popping. Debts need to get paid or they end in default. And of course, the debt burden today is at a level that cannot be repaid. You can just look at total debt as a function of the economy; it’s never been greater. I don’t think there’s really any way to objectively argue against these points. So it’s the greatest credit-market bubble we’ve ever seen. I have no confidence in how it’s going to end or when.
This is the most dangerous time in the markets ever. It has nothing to do with what’s going on in the Middle East, though. It has everything to do with what’s going on in Washington, D.C. The Fed has created a tinderbox time bomb and the greatest credit bubble in human history. And I do not think anybody would disagree with what I just said. But it doesn’t mean you shouldn’t be long on the market
Crypto is the ultimate risk asset. Bitcoin is just purely a castle in the air. I’ll buy it because I think you’re going to buy it from me — it’s the greater-fool theory in the purest, purest sense. And that’s fine; it’s a great punter’s pure risk asset, and it serves that function. I think it ultimately has very little utility. It’s a good indicator in many ways; it’s not a safe haven, okay? It’s the opposite of a safe haven. It would be a position against which you would need a safe haven.