So today I’ll be pivoting from the long term case for optimism to the short term problems that face the economy. Anyone who has studied monetary history, even the basics of monetary history, should be able to recognize, broadly speaking, where we stand today with our monetary system. And once you recognize where we’re at in the cycle of empire and monetary systems, you’ll start to get very concerned about where we’re most likely headed.

First, a little bit of context. When I talk about where we are and where we’re headed, I’m talking in terms of decades. I’ve been discussing this topic for the past 15 years, and I know that lots of people assume that when a person talks about something for 15 years and nothing really happens, that must mean it’s nonsense. But stepping back and looking broadly at monetary history, 15 years is a very short period of time. Immediately after the Bretton Woods Conference in 1944, many leading economists spoke out against the monetary system that was adopted, and said it would end in failure.

They were right. But they weren’t “right” for another 27 years when the system came to an end with the termination of the convertibility of the US dollar to gold. 27 years is a long time in a person’s lifetime…but in the grand sweep of history and monetary systems it’s not really all that long. Defining a long time vs. a short time is subjective and depends on your perspective. Perhaps it would be more relevant to talk about the distinction between something being inevitable and it being imminent.

The economists in 1944 that understood what was happening didn’t say that it would fail imminently, but that it would fail inevitably. The same thing happened with the closing of the gold window in 1971. Austrian Economists then didn’t say that the system would imminently fail, but rather, that it would inevitably fail. That was a long time ago. The system has survived and most Americans are completely oblivious to the damage that the post 1971 monetary system has caused both at home and around the globe. I’ll be posting a lot about gold. The reasons why, will unfortunately, I believe, become all to apparent over the next 15 years. Maybe I’ll be wrong with the timing, but I have a high level of conviction that I won’t be wrong with the inevitable outcome.

If you’re new to the topic of gold and are interested in beginning to understand why it will become important over the next decade or two, the following documentary (in two parts) will give you at least a basic understanding of it’s importance. It can’t begin to completely explain the topic of gold. That would take a lot more time and nuance. But it’s a good start.

Part 1