Kuppy has interesting takes on macro themes that a lot of people aren’t even considering. Because they’re outlier views, they’re obviously low percentage outcomes. But, as the odds of these types of outcomes rise, it’s important to think through the ramifications.
Once again, this outcome would have dramatic effects on the world as we know it. Personally, I think there’s a high liklihood of this happening, the only question is will it happen during this cycle or during the next cycle or two. Everyone wants to know when it will happen, and I understand that, and would obviously like to know too. From an investing standpoint, that’s the only thing that matters. But I find it fascinating that people are more interested in when it will happen than if it will happen, why it would happen, how it could be prevented, what the underlying reasons are that it will happen, etc., etc.
To me, these are intellectual questions that are far more interesting than what impact it will have on any paticular individual’s investment returns. I think it’s missing the forest for the trees. If you’re not more curious about the why than the when, I’m afraid I can’t help you. And you’re really missing the point.
I genuinely worry that the next crisis, is one that no one here in Western Markets is prepared for. We all live, think, and invest as if we’re a DM. What if we’re an EM, but we haven’t realized it yet?
About It's a Learning Problem
Welcome to my blog!
This blog is being created so that I can make my own meager contribution to the advancement of human liberty. I believe that the advancement of liberty is a learning problem and not a teaching problem. My goal is simply to learn. As I learn, I hope to share what I’ve learned with you. It is my hope that in giving, I will receive. As Leonard Read said:
“Why is this simple solution so little recognized, as if it were a secret; or so hesitatingly accepted, as if it were something unpleasant? Why do so many regard as hopeless the broadening of the single consciousness over which the individual has some control while not even questioning their ability to stretch the consciousness of others over which they have no control at all?
Most of the answers to these questions are as complex as the psychoanalysis of a dictator or the explanation of why so many people dote on playing God. Leaving these aside, because I do not know the answers, there stands out one stubborn but untenable reason: the widespread but desolating belief that the world or the nation or society could never be “saved” by the mere salvaging of private selves. People say, “There isn’t time for such a slow process,” and then, to speed things up, they promptly hurry in the wrong direction! They concentrate on the improvement of others, which is a hopeless task, and neglect the improvement of themselves, which is possible. Thus, the world or the nation or society remains unimproved.”
It's A Learning Problem 